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Seeing Patterns Where None Exists

I call data dredge studies the “Rorschach tests” of epidemiology, because researchers can pull out characteristics about people in almost unlimited combinations to find all sorts of correlations and conclude just about anything they set out to find. Just like the Rorschach test, seeing patterns where none exists, finding connections that are there but not as strongly as believed, and seeing what one expects to see, are common.

Page 8 of Statistics for Experiments by George Box, Willliam Hunter (my father) and Stu Hunter (no relation) shows a graph of the population (of people) versus the number of storks which shows a high correlation. “Although in this example few would be led to hypothesize that the increase in the number of storks caused the observed increase in population, investigators are sometimes guilty of this kind of mistake in other contexts.” And some might make it in this context 🙂

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