Arctic System on Trajectory to New, Seasonally Ice-Free State by (see below):
This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years.
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The ramifications of a transition to this newsystem state would be profound. The deglaciation of Greenland alone would cause a substantial (up to 6 m) rise in sea level, resulting in flooding along coastal areas where much of the world’s population resides.
Jonathan T. Overpeck, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA;
Matthew Sturm, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Fort Wainwright, Alaska, USA;
Jennifer A. Francis, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA;
Donald K. Perovich, the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA;
Mark C. Serreze, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA;
Ronald Benner, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, USA;
Eddy C. Carmack, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada;
F. Stuart Chapin III, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA;
S. Craig Gerlach, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA;
Lawrence C. Hamilton, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA;
Larry D. Hinzman of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA;
Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA;
Henry P. Huntington, Huntington Consulting, Eagle River, Alaska USA;
Jeffrey R. Key, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Madison, Wisconsin, USA;
Andrea H. Lloyd, Middlebury College, Middlebury, Virginia, USA;
Glen M. MacDonald, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA;
Joe McFadden, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA;
David Noone, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA;
Terry D. Prowse, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada;
Peter Schlosser, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA;
Charles Vörösmarty, University of New Hampshire, Durham New Hampshire, USA.
