Authors of Scientific Articles by Country

The United States National Science Foundation published – Changing U.S. Output of Scientific Articles: 1988–2003.

In an unexpected development in the early 1990s, the absolute number of science and engineering (S&E) articles published by U.S.-based authors in the world’s major peer-reviewed journals plateaued.
…
The unprecedented plateau in the number of U.S. S&E articles should not be confused with a decades-long and familiar decline in the U.S. share of the world’s S&E articles. As other states built up their S&E capabilities, the U.S. share of the world’s articles in natural sciences and engineering dropped from 38% in 1973 to 28% in 2003. This decline in share is not surprising, nor has it been viewed as a cause for concern. By many measures, including articles published in peer-reviewed journals, the United States has been the world’s leading scientific nation for decades and remains the world’s leading scientific nation.
…
Although the U.S. share of the world’s influential articles dropped substantially, the United States remained dominant in this area. At the end of the period studied, U.S. institutions were at least partially responsible for half of the world’s influential articles; no other major publishing center approached this figure. Moreover, compared with other major publishing centers, a considerably higher percentage of total U.S. output was classified as influential.

NSF includes a great deal of interesting data along with commentary. One compelling area is that of the location of authors of the top 1% of the most cited papers. The USA leads with 64.6% in 1992 and 56.6% in 2003. European Union-15 (15 countries for this measure) 23.3% to 27.7% (interesting, not what I would have predicted – which would have been a decline, though a small one). Japan 4.2% to 5.3%. East Asia – 4 (China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) from .1 to 1.1% (and rising rapidly – .5% in 2001 to .8% in 2002) – interesting but not so surprising, basically what I would expect – rapid gains. All other countries: 7.8% in 1992 and 9.3% in 2003. I predict these figures will have to break out India sometime in the next 10 years – I wish they did now though I expect it is a fairly low figure. China will also be reported separately, I believe.

The NSF data includes all sorts of great stuff. For the same top 1% of cited articles by topic East Asia – 4 in Engineering/Technology: 1992 .9% – 2003 7.2% in Social Sciences 0.0% to .6% in Mathematics 1.3% to 5.6%. In Engineering/Technology the USA dropped from 63.3% to 45.4%.

This is more data supporting what I have said before Science Excellence and Economic Benefits:
Continue reading →

AlienFly RC Mosquito Helicopter

Fun looking toy: AlienFly RC Mosquito. I don’t have one but the Amazon reviews are positive and it is under $30 (which again the reviews state should be your guide – fun but not a high performance piece of equipment). Getting the AC adapter sounds like a good idea too.

Where is “Everybody”

The Fermi Paradox: Back with a vengeance

The Fermi Paradox is the contradictory and counter-intuitive observation that we have yet to see any evidence for the existence of ETI’s. The size and age of the Universe suggests that many technologically advanced ETI’s ought to exist. However, this hypothesis seems inconsistent with the lack of observational evidence to support it.i”The Fermi Paradox is the contradictory and counter-intuitive observation that we have yet to see any evidence for the existence of ETI’s. The size and age of the Universe suggests that many technologically advanced ETI’s ought to exist. However, this hypothesis seems inconsistent with the lack of observational evidence to support it.
…
There are more stars in the Universe than we can possibly fathom. Any conception of ‘rare’ ‘not enough time’ or ‘far away’ has to be set against the inability of human psychology to grasp such vast cosmological scales and quantities. The Universe and the Milky Way are extremely old, our galaxy has been able to produce rocky planets for quite some time now, and our earth is a relative new-comer to the galaxy.
…
The fact that our Galaxy appears unperturbed is hard to explain. We should be living in a Galaxy that is saturated with intelligence and highly organized. Thus, it may be assumed that intelligent life is rare, or, given our seemingly biophilic Universe, our assumptions about the general behaviour of intelligent civilizations are flawed.

A paradox is a paradox for a reason: it means there’s something wrong in our thinking.

I agree. I am going with the it is hard for life to start and it what has started is really far away (so we can’t detect what life there is). Another option I could believe is once you reach a certain level of technological sophistication you often wipe out your civilization – leaving relatively short periods where civilizations produce signals we can detect (included in this is creating something that wipes themselves out, and a nasty thing [virus, bacteria, whatever…] that spreads everywhere because of instant transportation and wipes everybody out). Or maybe civilizations quickly go through a technology phase producing signals we can detect and move onto something else (though I can’t really understand why or what that would mean really). Or, similar to that one, for some reason we are really really odd in our move to technology – maybe most of the time things just stay in a natural state and nothing evolves that wants to do more than eat and sleep (if they sleep). That seems really unlikely but…

Fun for People – Hard for Computers

Arimaa is a highly competitive strategy game. It was designed to be:

* Difficult for computers.
* Playable with a standard chess set.
* Fun and interesting for humans.

Arimaa Tutorial. It looks interesting.

Google: Patent System in Crisis

Google’s patents chief believes the US patent system is “in crisis” and I agree, see related posts below. Google: Kill all the patent trolls

There are too many businesses, she added, who do little more than use patents as a means of making money. Such businesses, often referred to as trolls in patent law, have proved to be a serious minefield for tech companies over the last few years. Lee highlighted the tribulations of Research in Motion, maker of the BlackBerry handheld, which settled a patent lawsuit for $612m last May.

Speaking alongside Lee, Apple’s chief patent counsel, Chip Lutton, wouldn’t go quite so far as his Google counterpart. He said the US patent system was “not broken” and that it was “not in crisis,” calling it “the best in the world”. But he acknowledged that there was a “huge bubble” of patent assertions that needs to be scaled back. “The question with this bubble market, as with any bubble market, is ‘Can we solve it without a crisis arising?'” he said.

Lutton believes that the key to fixing the country’s patent problems lies with the courts, not the patent office. “Most patents issued are never litigated and never licensed,” he said. “We need to focus on fixing the litigation system. That’s most relevant.”

YouTube Architecture

This very interesting post by Todd Hoff gives an overview of the YouTube Architecture and thus some interesting ideas on large scale web application architecture.

Each video hosted by a mini-cluster. Each video is served by more than one machine.
* Using a a cluster means:
– More disks serving content which means more speed.
– Headroom. If a machine goes down others can take over.
– There are online backups.
* Servers use the lighttpd web server for video:
– Apache had too much overhead.
– Uses epoll to wait on multiple fds.
– Switched from single process to multiple process configuration to handle more connections.
* Most popular content is moved to a CDN (content delivery network):
– CDNs replicate content in multiple places. There’s a better chance of content being closer to the user, with fewer hops, and content will run over a more friendly network.
– CDN machines mostly serve out of memory because the content is so popular there’s little thrashing of content into and out of memory.
* Less popular content (1-20 views per day) uses YouTube servers in various colo sites.
– There’s a long tail effect. A video may have a few plays, but lots of videos are being played.

I have noticed a large increase in significant delays (taking 10-20 seconds to start playing) with YouTube in the last few months.

Contradictory Medical Studies

I have written before about false research findings. This is an important topic – we need to remember that the interpritation of one study (or many studies) in not necessarily conclusive. Another article – When Medical Studies Collide:

Two years ago, the headlines blared that echinacea was a bust. Millions of people who believed the best-selling herbal remedy was warding off colds were probably deluding themselves, according to The New England Journal of Medicine. Now echinacea is back in the news. This time, it works! So says a study in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

How could two studies come to such different conclusions—especially when there have been no new trials of the herb? While the New England Journal reported on one clinical trial, authors of the latest report combined data from previous studies, a controversial approach called a meta-analysis. Its conclusion is dramatically different—not just from that of the New England Journal paper, but also from a review last year of the same studies.
…
The problem is, the world of medical and health research is messier than most people realize. Black-and-white answers are rare, even when it comes to a single drug trial.

Just remember those last two sentences. Very simple. And most people would agree if you showed them those two sentences and asked if they agreed. But then they see a headline and away they go… Just force yourself to repeat that idea every time you see a health report. Don’t believe the headline without strong support.

An interesting tidbit from the article. The coneflower is the source of echinacea. I tried to find photos that I am pretty sure I have on my hard drive of the flowers in my back yard, but I couldn’t.

High Pay for Engineering Graduates – July 2007

From the National Association of Colleges and Employers survey , Starting Salary Offers to Class of 2007 Continue to Rise.

Degree	Average Salary Offer	Increase over 2006
Chemical Engineering	$59,361	5.4%
Civil Engineering	$48,509	5.4%
Computer Engineering	$56,201	4.8%
Computer Science	$53,396	4.1%
Mechanical Engineering	$54,128	4.6%
Electrical Engineering	$55,292	3.2%
Information sciences and systems	$50,852	4.6%

Economics was the next highest pay reported by NACE at $48,483. So once again engineering graduates are being paid well. Some other majors: Accounting – $46,718; English – $32,553 and Psychology $31,631.

Research on Why Healthy Living Leads to Longer Life

New Clue into How Diet and Exercise Enhance Longevity

In their experiments, the researchers sought to understand the role of the insulin-like signaling pathway in extending lifespan. This pathway governs growth and metabolic processes in cells throughout the body. The pathway is activated when insulin and insulin-like growth factor-1 switch on proteins inside the cell called insulin receptor substrates (Irs).

Other researchers had shown that reducing the activity of the pathway in roundworms and fruitflies extends lifespan. Despite those tantalizing clues, White said, “The idea that insulin reduces lifespan is difficult to reconcile with decades of clinical practice and scientific investigation to treat diabetes.” “In fact, based on our work on one of the insulin receptor substrates, Irs2, in liver and pancreatic beta cells, we thought more Irs2 would be good for you,” said White. “It reduces the amount of insulin needed in the body to control blood glucose, and it promotes growth, survival and insulin secretion from pancreatic beta cells.
…
“Diet, exercise and lower weight keep your peripheral tissues sensitive to insulin. That reduces the amount and duration of insulin secretion needed to keep your glucose under control when you eat. Therefore, the brain is exposed to less insulin. Since insulin turns on Irs2 in the brain, that means lower Irs2 activity, which we’ve linked to longer lifespan in the mouse.”

Evolutionary Design

Evolutionary algorithms now surpass human designers by Paul Marks:

Evolutionary Algorithms take two parent designs – for a boat hull, say – and blend components of each, perhaps taking the surface area of one and the curvature of another, to produce multiple hull offspring that combine the features of the parents in different ways. Then the algorithm selects those offspring it considers are worth re-breeding – in this case those with the right combination of parameters to make a better hull. The EA then repeats the process. Although many offspring will be discarded, after thousands of generations or more, useful features accumulate in the same design, and get combined in ways that likely would not have occurred to a human designer. This is because a human does not have the time to combine all the possibilities for each feature and evaluate them, but an EA does.

Evolving new designs is very cool. One point I would like to make (I am biased since my father did a great deal of work in this area) is the power of design of experiments to allow experimenting on multiple factors at once. This is a methodology that is still used far too little. Regardless, evolutionary design is very cool. The Human-Competitive awards highlight some examples.